Bitcoin may still have one final capitulation phase before establishing its next long-term market bottom, according to technical analysts who believe one of the cryptocurrency’s most reliable momentum indicators is following the same roadmap seen in previous bear markets.
Crypto trader Max Crypto argues that Bitcoin’s two-month Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) continues to mirror historical cycles from 2014, 2018, and 2022—periods that ultimately marked major macro bottoms for BTC.
A Familiar Technical Pattern Emerges
The two-month Stoch RSI, a momentum oscillator designed to measure the speed and strength of price movements, has fallen to 4.81 after entering oversold territory earlier this year. According to TradingView data, the indicator is trading at levels not seen in more than three years.
For Max Crypto, the signal is straightforward.
Every previous bear market ended after the two-month Stoch RSI completed a bullish crossover and eventually reset to zero. The same sequence unfolded during Bitcoin’s major cyclical lows in 2014, 2018, and following the 2022 crypto winter.
If history continues to rhyme, the analyst believes the final bear-market bottom may not be confirmed until the indicator once again reaches that extreme oversold level.
Rather than signaling immediate upside, the indicator suggests Bitcoin could still require additional time to complete its broader market cycle before entering a sustainable bull trend.
Momentum Indicators Continue to Improve
While the higher-timeframe outlook remains cautious, shorter-term technical signals have begun turning more constructive.
Bitcoin’s recovery above $64,000 this month followed multiple bullish RSI divergences across daily and lower timeframes—a pattern that often indicates weakening selling pressure despite continued price weakness.
Bullish divergence occurs when price records equal or lower lows while momentum indicators begin printing higher lows, suggesting bears are gradually losing control.
Several traders believe these divergences helped foreshadow Bitcoin’s recent rebound before it became visible on the price chart itself.
Macro Bottom Signals Continue to Build
Another closely watched signal came from analyst Osemka, who highlighted Bitcoin’s daily RSI falling to just 15 earlier this year—one of the lowest readings ever recorded.
Historically, such extreme momentum collapses have occurred only a handful of times throughout Bitcoin’s trading history and have frequently appeared near major accumulation phases.
However, Osemka noted one important distinction.
During the current cycle, Bitcoin briefly swept previous lows instead of decisively breaking beneath them. A similar pattern occurred near the end of the 2015 accumulation range before the market entered its next multi-year bull cycle.
Although the analyst does not rule out another leg lower, the historical comparison suggests Bitcoin may already be transitioning into the latter stages of its bear market.
Equity Markets Offer Additional Confirmation
Some traders are also monitoring Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional financial markets.
BitcoinHyper recently pointed to a bullish RSI divergence developing between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, implying BTC’s momentum may be strengthening even as broader risk assets remain under pressure.
A decoupling from equities could become an important catalyst if macroeconomic conditions stabilize and institutional demand returns to digital assets.
Market Outlook
The technical picture remains mixed across different timeframes.
Short-term momentum indicators are increasingly pointing toward seller exhaustion, with bullish RSI divergences already supporting Bitcoin’s rebound above $64,000. However, longer-term cycle indicators such as the two-month Stochastic RSI continue to suggest the broader bear-market structure may not be fully complete.
If previous market cycles remain a reliable guide, traders will likely continue watching for one final reset in long-term momentum before declaring the 2026 bear market officially over. Until then, Bitcoin may remain caught between improving short-term sentiment and an unfinished macro cycle that has yet to deliver its final confirmation signal.
