Bitcoin’s path toward the next market bottom may hinge less on technical indicators and more on the behavior of investors who entered near the previous cycle’s highs, according to new onchain analysis from Glassnode.
Long-term holders are approaching a key turning point
Glassnode lead analyst Cryptovizart highlighted a metric that has consistently signaled the latter stages of previous bear markets: realized losses generated by holders who have kept their Bitcoin for one to two years.
This investor cohort accumulated BTC primarily between July 2024 and July 2025, when Bitcoin climbed from roughly $62,800 to above $107,000. As prices later retreated, many of these buyers found themselves holding positions at a loss.
Rather than selling immediately, these holders have gradually increased their loss realization as market weakness persisted. According to Glassnode, this pattern has historically reflected growing capitulation among investors who purchased late in the bull cycle.
Selling exhaustion has historically preceded recoveries
The crucial signal is not the increase in realized losses itself, but when that trend begins to reverse.
Glassnode’s 30-day moving average of realized losses for the one-to-two-year holder cohort recently climbed above $75 million before starting to cool. Previous bear markets have displayed a similar sequence, where elevated realized losses eventually peaked and declined as forced selling subsided.
According to Cryptovizart, these reversals have often coincided with the market moving beyond its most aggressive distribution phase, making the metric one of the clearest early indications that downside pressure may be fading.
While the signal does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal, it suggests that one of Bitcoin’s most important sources of selling pressure could be approaching exhaustion.
Attention turns to the $69,000 level
Beyond holder behavior, Glassnode believes Bitcoin faces another decisive test if a broader recovery develops.
The firm’s latest Week Onchain report identifies approximately $69,000 as the next major resistance zone based on the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders. The level also aligns with Bitcoin’s former all-time high established during the 2021 bull market, giving it both psychological and onchain significance.
Investors who purchased near this price may look to exit once their positions return to breakeven, potentially creating substantial selling pressure.
Glassnode argues that Bitcoin’s reaction around this zone could determine whether the current recovery evolves into a sustained uptrend or remains trapped within a broader consolidation range. A decisive breakout above $69,000 would likely strengthen bullish momentum, while another rejection could reinforce the existing bearish structure.
Combined with improving realized-loss dynamics, the coming weeks may reveal whether Bitcoin is transitioning from capitulation toward accumulation—or simply preparing for another test of market resilience.
