France has become the latest country to move against Polymarket, underscoring the increasingly difficult regulatory environment facing prediction-market platforms around the world.
The French gambling regulator, Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), has instructed internet service providers to restrict access to the platform, arguing that Polymarket operates without authorization under French gambling law. The agency also warned that promoting unauthorized gambling services is a criminal offense punishable by fines of up to 100,000 euros (about $114,000).
The decision reflects a wider debate over how prediction markets should be classified. Platforms such as Polymarket allow users to trade contracts linked to future events — ranging from elections and sports results to economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Supporters view these markets as tools for aggregating information and forecasting outcomes, while regulators increasingly question whether they function more like unlicensed gambling venues or financial derivatives exchanges.
Polymarket’s rapid rise has intensified that scrutiny. The platform has processed billions of dollars in global trading volume over the past two years, but it has also been blocked in a growing number of jurisdictions, including Singapore, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, Ukraine, Brazil, and Indonesia. According to the company, it is currently geoblocked in 36 regions.
French authorities had signaled their intention to take action as early as November 2024, citing concerns that the platform did not comply with national gambling regulations. In its latest statement, the ANJ said prediction markets contain features similar to regulated betting products, but without the consumer protections required in France’s legal gambling market.
The regulator also pointed to alleged manipulation risks associated with certain event contracts. One example involved weather-related markets, where investigators suspected that data from weather sensors may have been compromised, potentially affecting the outcome of bets. The Paris Public Prosecutor’s cybercrime unit opened an investigation into the matter in May 2026.
Investigators additionally reported shortcomings in identity verification procedures, including the absence of robust Know Your Customer (KYC) checks.
The pressure on prediction markets is not limited to Europe. In the United States, Kentucky filed a lawsuit in June against five prediction-market operators, including Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of running unlicensed sports-betting platforms. More than a dozen other states have launched similar actions. At the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has challenged several states in court, arguing that they are interfering with the federal regulator’s authority over event-based contracts.
The dispute highlights a growing jurisdictional conflict: governments are increasingly trying to control prediction markets through gambling laws, while some operators argue that their products belong under financial-market regulation. As regulators across Europe and the United States continue to test those boundaries, Polymarket has become a central case study in the global struggle to define the future of prediction markets.
